As the 98th Academy Awards ceremony draws tantalizingly close, the air crackles with anticipation, yet one category, Best Actress, appears to have found its undisputed queen. For months, the conversation has revolved around Jessie Buckley’s breathtaking portrayal in Chloé Zhao’s poignant Shakespearean grief drama, "Hamnet," a performance that has not only garnered universal acclaim but has also swept the major precursor awards, firmly establishing her as the frontrunner. This year, Variety‘s esteemed Awards Circuit section, meticulously curated by chief awards editor Clayton Davis, has tracked a race less about suspense at the top and more about a collective admiration for a singular, towering achievement.
The journey to the Oscars is a marathon, not a sprint, and the Variety Awards Circuit serves as the definitive guide, offering dynamic predictions for the industry’s most prestigious honors, including the Emmys, Grammys, and Tony Awards, alongside the paramount Oscars. Davis’s predictions are not personal endorsements but rather a rigorous assessment of the current landscape, reflecting the ever-shifting currents of industry buzz, critical consensus, and formal polling data. These insights are refreshed weekly, providing an up-to-the-minute pulse on the awards season’s intricate dance.
In the highly competitive Best Actress field, the sheer depth of talent is remarkable, presenting arguably one of the strongest lineups in recent memory. Yet, it is Buckley’s turn as Agnes Hathaway, William Shakespeare’s wife, in "Hamnet" that has captured the collective imagination and the lion’s share of accolades. Her performance is not merely a portrayal but an immersion, a raw, visceral exploration of love, loss, and the silent strength of a woman navigating unimaginable grief in Elizabethan England. Chloé Zhao, known for her lyrical realism and profound humanism in films like "Nomadland," brings a sensitive, intimate lens to the story, allowing Buckley’s performance to unfurl with an authenticity that is both devastating and deeply resonant.
"Hamnet," adapted from Maggie O’Farrell’s acclaimed novel, delves into the largely untold story of Shakespeare’s family life, specifically the tragic death of his son, Hamnet, and its profound impact on his art, notably the creation of "Hamlet." Buckley, with her formidable stage presence and magnetic screen charisma, embodies Agnes with a fiercely independent spirit, a deep connection to nature, and an intuitive understanding of the human condition. Critics have lauded her ability to convey layers of emotion – joy, frustration, fierce love, and ultimately, an all-consuming sorrow – often without a single word, relying instead on a powerful physicality and expressive gaze. This nuanced performance has transcended the typical period drama trappings, resonating with contemporary audiences through its timeless themes of parenthood, creative inspiration, and the resilience of the human spirit. The film’s elegant cinematography and evocative score further amplify Buckley’s work, creating a cinematic experience that is both intellectually stimulating and emotionally overwhelming.
Buckley’s ascent to this premier position has been a gradual but undeniable force. Her career has been marked by a series of captivating performances across various genres, from her breakout role in "Beast" to her Oscar-nominated turn in "The Lost Daughter." Each role has showcased her remarkable versatility and her willingness to delve into complex, often challenging characters. In "Hamnet," she channels this cumulative experience, delivering a performance that many are calling the definitive work of her career thus far. The "sweep" of major precursors — including potentially the Golden Globe, SAG Award, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice Award for Best Actress — is not just a testament to her individual brilliance but also reflects a broader industry consensus that her portrayal is truly exceptional, marking a watershed moment for the actress. Such a dominant run typically signals an unstoppable momentum heading into the Academy Awards, transforming the category from a tight contest into a celebratory recognition of an artist at the peak of her powers.
With the top spot seemingly cemented, the real intrigue for awards enthusiasts now shifts to the battle for second place and the other coveted nominations. This year’s lineup, rich with diverse performances and compelling narratives, presents a fascinating study in cinematic artistry and career evolution.
Among the formidable contenders is Rose Byrne, who delivers a ferocious, discomfort-forward performance in "If I Had Legs I’d Kick You." Known for her exceptional range, from sharp comedic timing in films like "Bridesmaids" to dramatic intensity in "Damages," Byrne takes a bold turn here, portraying a woman on the precipice of unraveling. Her character’s journey is an unflinching look at vulnerability and the raw, often uncomfortable truths of human experience. Byrne commits fully to this challenging role, stripping away artifice to reveal a performance that is both unsettling and deeply empathetic. Her ability to navigate such complex emotional landscapes with authenticity has earned her significant critical praise, highlighting a dramatic prowess that sometimes gets overshadowed by her comedic genius. This role serves as a powerful reminder of her depth as an actress, pushing boundaries and inviting audiences to confront the uncomfortable realities of her character’s descent.
Kate Hudson makes a triumphant return to the awards spotlight with "Song Sung Blue," a performance that has resonated deeply with critics and audiences alike. It marks a significant moment for Hudson, nearly 24 years after her indelible, Oscar-nominated performance as Penny Lane in "Almost Famous" (2001). In "Song Sung Blue," Hudson offers a very different narrative, showcasing a maturity and emotional gravitas that speaks to her evolution as an actress. While details of the film’s plot remain under wraps, her portrayal is lauded for its nuanced understanding of human connection and resilience. This nomination represents not just a comeback, but a powerful re-affirmation of her enduring talent, proving that her star quality and dramatic capabilities have only deepened with time. For many, it’s a welcome return for an actress whose charm and talent have long been appreciated, now seen in a new, compelling light.
From the vibrant landscape of contemporary Norwegian cinema, Renate Reinsve anchors Joachim Trier’s "Sentimental Value" with a quiet authority that captivates. Reinsve burst onto the international scene with her Oscar-nominated performance in Trier’s "The Worst Person in the World," showcasing a refreshing blend of vulnerability and vivacity. In "Sentimental Value," she once again demonstrates her unique ability to convey profound emotion through subtle gestures and internal struggles. Trier’s films often explore the complexities of modern life and relationships with a distinctive blend of humor and melancholy, and Reinsve is a perfect conduit for his vision. Her performance is characterized by an understated power, drawing the audience into her character’s inner world with a magnetic pull. In a category often dominated by grand, theatrical performances, Reinsve’s nuanced and deeply human portrayal stands out as a testament to the quiet strength found in everyday struggles and the profound impact of seemingly small moments.
And then there is Emma Stone, a titan in her own right, already a two-time Oscar winner for her transformative roles in "La La Land" and "Poor Things." Stone once again embraces bold absurdity in Yorgos Lanthimos’s "Bugonia," continuing her fruitful collaboration with the visionary director. Lanthimos’s distinctive cinematic universe, known for its surrealism, dark humor, and often unsettling narratives, provides a fertile ground for Stone to showcase her fearless approach to character. Her performances are never merely acted; they are fully embodied, pushing boundaries and challenging conventional expectations. In "Bugonia," she is expected to deliver another captivating, perhaps even bizarre, performance that solidifies her reputation as one of the most daring and versatile actresses of her generation. While a third Oscar win so early in her career would be a historic achievement, it also sparks discussions about the Academy’s recognition patterns and the impact of successive wins on an actor’s legacy. Her presence in the race, regardless of the final outcome, underscores the exceptional caliber of talent vying for the golden statue this year.
The 98th Oscars, set for Sunday, March 15, and hosted by the inimitable Conan O’Brien, promises to be an evening of celebration, surprises, and perhaps a touch of his characteristic wit. While the individual categories will see predictions updated throughout the week leading up to the ceremony, the Best Actress race, thanks to Jessie Buckley’s commanding presence, has largely transformed from a nail-biting competition into a near-coronation. Her performance in "Hamnet" stands as a testament to the enduring power of storytelling and the profound impact of an actress who fully inhabits her role, leaving an indelible mark on both the screen and the hearts of audiences. The debate over who will join her on the nomination list, and ultimately who will be recognized alongside her, only further illuminates the extraordinary depth and artistry present in this year’s remarkable class of leading women.
